Maldives: Investment case for children in Maldives

Terms of Reference for International Contract to conduct the Investment case for children in Maldives

ToRs Reference Number: ToRs/2016/02

Programme Information

· CPD Output 2.1: Systems for generating evidence are strengthened at national and sub national levels for inclusive and equitable policies, plans and services, especially for the most disadvantaged.

Purpose of assignment (attach background documents if any)

Country context:

Maldives is one of the smallest countries in South Asia and the Pacific by population and land area, and its people are scattered across 188 islands. Located in the Indian Ocean to the southwest of the Indian subcontinent, the Maldives comprises an archipelago of about 1,190 low-lying coral reef islands in an ocean area more than 800 kilometers (km) long and 130 km wide. The land area, which includes about 26 natural atolls, is grouped into 20 administrative atolls. The resident population, estimated at 402,071[1] is widely dispersed across its inhabited islands of which about 125 islands have fewer than 1,000 inhabitants. One third of the population lives in the capital city Male, which is an island of less than 2 square km. According to the 2014 Population and Housing Census, the percentage of under 15 population has decreased from 32% to 27% (93,478), and this trend is related to the decrease of level of fertility in the 2000s.

Over the past 30 years, Maldives has successfully built on its extraordinary natural assets to promote growth and socio-economic development. Maldives shares many of the Small Island Developing States development challenges, such as: a small domestic market; a narrow and fragile resource base; a shortage of skilled manpower; difficult inter-island transport and communication; high cost of social and economic infrastructure provision; and heavy dependence on external trade and vulnerability to external shocks and natural disasters. However, in the case of Maldives, these challenges are compounded by its high geographic dispersion with 1,190 coral islands. Nevertheless, the development of a profitable high-end tourism sector has fueled sustained growth[2] rates and supported public investments in health and education. In the early 1980s, Maldives was one of the world’s 20 poorest countries. Thirty years later, its inhabitants enjoy the same levels of GDP per capita and human development[3] outcomes as a middle-income country[4].

However, Maldives’ model of economic development has not been inclusive and its future sustainability is at stake. Although this economic model based on tourism-led growth and redistribution of tourism-generated revenues has contributed to improving well-being of Maldivian population[5], poverty reduction has been below potential and the level of inequality[6] - and lack of shared prosperity - remain a major challenge. Moreover, recent socio-economic development have brought to evidence the inherent vulnerability of Maldives’ development model and raise immediate concerns about its fiscal, environment and social sustainability.

The continuance of macro-economic imbalances remains a critical threat to investments in human development. Fiscal consolidation continues to be the main item on the macroeconomic agenda, with the persistent fiscal deficits adding to public debt levels. Slippage in both the revenue collection and expenditures cutbacks continue to lead to fiscal deficits that are higher than the government target. On the expenditure side, despite efforts to curb spending on wages and salaries in recent years, fiscal deficits have meant lower capital expenditures. As result, the total government debt has continued to rise since 2007, particularly domestic debt reached 44% of GDP at the end of 2014 from 45.3% in 2007. External debt declined to 23% of GDP in 2014 from 45.3% in 2007[7].

Spending on social sectors that are particularly important for children – including education, health and nutrition, social protection – has been increasing over the last decade. In 2014, Education and Health services together accounted for 22% of the total Government spending. Maldives is the country in South Asia spending the highest share of GDP on Health and Education. Interestingly, and despite a spending on Education that is significantly above international average, and a significant number (194) of lower secondary school throughout the country, the Maldivian Government has been so far unable to universal access to secondary education and address outstanding learning and education-quality issues. Despite the achievements of the health-related Millenium Development Goals and significant resources allocated to the health sector, malnutrition among children presents the most critical public health concern. Rates of stunting, underweight and wasting among children U5 in 2009 were, respectively, 19%, 17% and 11%. Neonatal mortality rates also remain a concern. Other emerging issues include anemia and obesity, with 6% of children U5and 24% of adolescents obese in 2009[8].

While tremendous progress has been made towards adding new programs and expanding coverage of existing ones, Maldives is still far from its policy goal of transforming fragmented social safety net programs into a comprehensive social protection system. Universal subsidies on food and electricity and universal health insurance represent the bulk of social expenditure together with social pension (Old Age Basic Pension) and Senior Citizens Allowance. Smaller safety net programs include disability and single parent allowances. Poor targeting and weak coordination in administration greatly reduce the potential impact of safety net programs and challenge their fiscal sustainability and, ultimately, the quality of assistance to those most vulnerable.

National Budget constraints resulting from the worsening fiscal deficit and the debt conditions continuing from the impact of the global economic shocks, still pose major challenges. These impact the Government’s ability to address issues affecting children in quality health care, education and unemployment, child protection and social protection, especially the most vulnerable in the far-flung islands. Unless adjustments are made to revenues and expenditures, the current development model raises immediate fiscal sustainability concerns. At current trends, it is projected to lead to ever increasing levels of public debt (although fiscal consolidation measures were taken in 2015 budget) and interest payment even after the fiscal consolidation measures budgeted in 2015. The widening fiscal deficit has forced the country to accumulate more and more domestic debt at ever higher interest rates (measures were taken to reduce interest rate in 2014 &2015, interest rates were reduced close to half), posing serious threats on the fiscal consolidation and macro-economic stability in assisting the Government to increase, prioritize and sustain investments in key social sectors important for the development of children in the Maldives.

Against this backdrop, UNICEF Maldives, in collaboration with the Government, plans to develop a paper that makes the case for increased investment in public sectors in the Maldives. The investment case will highlight the situation of public sector in Maldives and provide a rationale for why increased investment in those sector is essential for children development. The paper will then be used for high-level advocacy to increase national and international funding for children in Maldives.4

What is the basic project objective to which the consultancy is related?

The general objective of this consultancy is to produce an analytical report that discusses progress and challenges regarding investment in children at national and local levels. The paper will clearly provide an overview of the context for Maldives’ children - looking at their wellbeing, where progress is being made, and areas where more investments are most critically needed.

Specifically, the paper will look at the budget trends and its allocations and expenditures inclusive of child related budgets and expenditures with a view to establish the most deprived areas that are resulting in vulnerabilities among children. The Consultant will analyze the current budget allocations vis a vis the current situation of children and the possible impacts in the long term against a no investment scenario; and articulate concrete recommendations on how the government of Maldives (GoM) can improve the quantity and quality of public spending on children.

This initiative is part of a broader effort of UNICEF Maldives to improve evidence base on investment and situation of Children in Maldives, and inform high-level discussions during the budgetary framework, and interactions among policy makers, development partners and others stakeholders.

Major tasks to be accomplished

The following are the major tasks to be accomplished:

a) Conduction of a comprehensive survey of primary data on child related allocations and expenditures from the national government budgets and expenditures report at sectorial ministries. Some of the indicators to be tracked include:

· Public spending on education for children (ECD, primary, secondary and TVET)

· Public spending on social assistance to children

· Public spending on interventions that are aimed at addressing child protection issues (such as children in contact with the law, children without appropriate care, child abuse – including sexual and gender based violence)

· Public spending on child health and its related areas

· Public spending in housing and environment in respect to children wellbeing

· Public spending on others child rights related areas

· Public spending on national data collection system on children

b) Analysis of public spending vis a vis the deprivation profile from Census data, administrative data and others sources of information.

c) Given the projected population growth (Census 2014), analysis of the likely impact on children if there is no increased investment in children in the next 5, 10 and 15 years (meeting the SDGs indicators)

d) Development of probable scenarios on the impact of increased investment in children in the child deprivation areas identified in public education/ECD, health/nutrition, social protection and child protection

e) consideration of the recurrent cost of investments and the net returns on such investments

f) Highlight the implications of the results from the equity angle and the child rights perspective.

Methodology

The methodology for this study will include a literature review of Government of Maldives sectoral policies and plans, as well as literature related to revenue raising, expenditure and generally public financial management in the Maldives. Hence, the main body of information will come from a large review of the GoM data: national surveys to collect data on children; extensive Ministry of Finance & Treasury budget data, Maldives Inland Revenue Authority (MIRA) related to domestic resource mobilisation., Official Development Assistance (ODA) funds and any others reliable sources. Extensive data collection and analysis, particularly of budget data will be an important part of the methodology. This includes constructing, from primary data, atoll budget equity analysis for a number of sectors.

The Consultant will conduct:

· Review of primary and secondary data on 1) resource mobilization trends, 2) public spending patterns on child rights and 3) participation, transparency and accountability 4) equity of public spending;

· interviews with key informants in civil society and government and also with relevant inter-governmental organizations such as UNICEF, ILO, World Bank and the International Monetary Fund on the areas highlighted in (b) above.

· Focus group discussions with child led organizations

· Facilitation of a half day workshops for policymakers to :

(i) Discuss the inception report and agree on the methodology

(ii) Discuss the preliminary findings of the investment case

(iii) To facilitate the validation and final dissemination of findings

Deliverables

Proposed schedule for deliverables and estimated duration of the consultancy:

It is estimated that the Consultant will work up to 40 working days in total between 15 April and 31^st May 2016.

Deliverable

duration

· Inception report ( half day workshop to discuss the detailed methodology and timeframe) max.15 pages

(5 working days)

· Desk review, Data collection, draft analysis report and presentation of major findings

(20 working days)

· Final report + 2 policy briefs (drafts) and presentation materials

(10 working days)

· Validation and dissemination

(5 working days)

Estimated duration of contract.

40 working days between April 15^th 2016 – 31^st May 2016

1.Official travel involved (itinerary and duration)

The consultants will make 3 travels into the country and will travel locally to the islands if needed.

2.Qualifications.

The consultancy requires the following qualifications and experiences:

· Advanced university degree in social sciences, especially economics, public policy with strong data analysis

· Proven experience in public finance including issues of fiscal policy and budgeting.

· Have produced publishable materials in the area of budgeting, financing development, child rights.

· Sensitivity to diverse opinions and difficulties arising from differing social and cultural perceptions.

· Excellent writing, communication both orally and written in English

· Previous work experience with the UN and in particular the Investment case, or in Public Finance for Children is preferred.

· Knowledge and experience in development issues in Maldives or South Asia, is an asset.

3.Duty station:

Male’, Maldives (for the required tasks) and from home-base.

4.Supervisor

Amadou Seck, Social Policy and Planning UNICEF Maldives.

[1] Population and Housing Census 2014

[2] Growth averaged 7.4% per year during 1986-2014. (ADB)

[3] HDI of 0.688 (HDR, 2012)

[4] Since 2011.

[5] GNI per capita soared by 54%, from US$3,630 in 2004 to US$ 5,600 in 2014 (ADB, 2014)

[6] The Gini coefficient for the Maldives show a decline from 1997 to 2004 to 2009/2010 from 0.42 to 0.41 and

further to 0.37

[7] National budget 2016

[8] DHS 2009

Deadline for application is 31^st March 2016

Interested international institutions should submit an Expression of Interest along with;

(i) An updated CVs with proof of similar work previously undertaken,

(ii) A proposal on how you will undertake this assignment with methodology and timeline, and

(iii) Proposed fee (in USD)

To: male@unicef.org**, copied to asmohamed@unicef.org**